The Vilnius summit could have achieved much more, if only the political willpower had allowed it
Ukraine will probably get the NATO membership as a sweetener after the war. Realistically the war will only end through negotiations where unavoidably land will be lost to Russia in exchange for security guarantees.
There’s no chance NATO’ll grant Ukraine membership. It is right next to Russia, and NATO is scared to upset Putin.
There’s a good reason that Zelenskyy states often & publicly that they’ll take back Crimea. It is because, imho, NATO would be happy for Putin to have Crimea as a face-saver. But the Ukrainians have lost too much and know that kicking Russia out of every inch of Ukraine is the only guarantee that they’ll be safe from future special operations.
NATO likes a weakened Russia but still wants to appease Putin. May they’re afraid of what’ll happen if he gets deposed. Or maybe he has kompromat on the leaders.
“There’s no chance NATO’ll grant Ukraine membership. It is right next to Russia, and NATO is scared to upset Putin.”
While I agree that the chances for Ukraina bring admitted is next to slim I definitively don’t agree with your opinion on why it will not happen.
You do understand that Ukraine is literally the only democracy in Europe that shares borders with Russia and is not a member of NATO?
It is not a member of NATO because Merkel (Putin’s useful idiot or agent, take your pick) would not allow it.
While I agree that the chances for Ukraina bring admitted is next to slim
Why, in your opinion, is that?
Not who you asked, but:
The reasonable countries in NATO have been burnt before by letting in countries with a long record of having reasonable governments, and Ukraine has had one for only a decade. They probably aren’t that keen to be burnt again.
The unreasonable countries are… unreasonable… interested in sucking up to the dictators of the world. They don’t do that by making NATO larger.
Meanwhile while NATO has a lot to offer Ukraine, Ukraine doesn’t have a whole lot to offer NATO (that isn’t already on offer by things like asking to join the EU). It’s not like Turkey where they control a critical piece of territory.
Ukraine is becoming one of the largest armies in the world, and one of the two with big intensity war experience. They lack equipment and some training, but they have a lot to teach nato and a lot of manpower so nato citizen don’t have to go to war in the near future.
They also were controlling a strategic piece of territory, which is why Russia invaded in the first place. Access to Mediterranean Sea. There’s nothing the US love more than to have their enemies surrounded and blockades by US vassals. You know like Taiwan for example.
One of the reasons of not granting NATO membership was indeed in fear of russian retaliation. Russia took Crimea and invaded Donbas since then even without the membership promise. Putin is already upset so no reason not to bestow the membership on Ukraine.
Kicking out Russia is next to impossible as they’ve dug in. What Ukraine has in superior weaponry, Russia has in numbers. Time is bad for both parties, but worse for Ukraine, as Western fatigue will inevitably come.
Finland is also right next to Russia, in fact St Petersburg is only 100 miles from the border. And by “border”, that now means “NATO border.”
So maybe NATO doesn’t really care what Putin thinks about its membership.
The war will end when Russia gives up. The US will keep Ukraine supplied until then. It’s a lot like Afghanistan vs the soviets.
Didn’t Biden just say the reason we are giving them cluster bombs is because both we and they are running out of other ammunitions?
The only thing the US is running out of is “extra” munitions. Cluster bombs were about enabling effective counterattack.
Thanks, that makes sense.
Yeah, I agree that’s probably how this is going to play out; Ukraine cedes some territory to Russia and is allowed to join NATO, hopefully safeguarding it against further Russian imperialism in the future.
In the meantime, we should of course keep supporting Ukraine as much as we can to give them as strong of a position in these potential future negotiations as possible.
As long as Russia retains even a toehold in Ukraine, NATO’ll say conflict is not resolved, so can’t talk of membership. Even in the Vilnius meeting, NATO did not even promise to start negotiations as soon as the war is over, They just said “Ukraine will become a member of NATO” which is just showing a carrot at the end of a long stick to keep the donkey moving. They have no intention to end the war. Just prolong it or freeze the conflict. Prolonging the conflict will give Putin to regain some strength, so they’ll just use Ukraine to bleed Russia continuously but slowly.
There is no minimizing how self-servng and cowardly NATO is being at the cost of Ukrainian lives.
Membership can come quickly: Finland became a member rather swiftly. I figure most members would want the war the end as soon as possible because it’s a moneydrain. European members are not eager to prolong a war just outside their borders.
The situation is different for the US of course. I don’t agree with you on Russia: A prolonged war is in the best interest of the US as it weakens Russia over time. There current economy and sanctions don’t allow a long-term “military operation”. Furthermore China can’t rely on a weak ally if shit hits the fan in Taiwan. Ukraine is also a prime example on how willing the US is to support allies in a long-term proxy war.
There is pretty much zero risk of russia getting any teritory from ukraine. Russia will break apart before that happens.
