cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/12971023
Hi folks, out of pure curiosity, I was poking some graphs.
It’s been about half a year since the big API protest, so I was curious to see what Lemmy’s crtitical mass looks like, what the staying power is, etc. Screenshots taken from https://the-federation.info/platform/73 on 2024-01-09. I’m posting screenshots because they’re a snapshot in time, and because that stats server is very slow.
Because I’m posting on lemmy.ca, I’ll post quite a few related to this instance, but it’s probably more widely applicable and you can get graphs from your instance too. I’ll also post some lemmy.world and lemmy.ml graphs, since they make interesting points of comparison – biggest server, and original server.
First, lemmy-wide total users count, where this is a rolling one month window. If a user was online within the month, they count here.
First observation – there’s some jagged edges in the graph due to things popping in and out of the federation. So it’s probably more useful to look at single servers. Lemmy.world came online pretty much coincidentally with the API protest and had open registration, so it makes a good data point. You can see the surge of users, then the plateau of the people who stuck around:
Lemmy.ml below has a similar curve, plus some sort of data artefact.
As does lemmy.ca, below:
I suspect the data artifact is related to the transition from 0.18 to 0.19 and something changed in the way active users was counted in between. Lemmy.world is still running 0.18.5.
Notes: The difference between the peak and the plateau is higher on lemmy.world and lemmy.ml – I suspect this is because they were more popular places to sign up during the protest. Whereas lemmy.ca has retained more users, as a percentage. Still, the total number of active users on each server is quite low.
In the same order (total, lemmy.world, lemmy.ml, lemmy.ca), total posts. The slope of this line represents post rate. Steeper line is better. Flat line means dead instance.
And comments. I wish there was a comments to posts ratio, which would be some indication of engagement levels. But you can sort of work it out.
Anyway, looks like post rate has decreased slightly since the initial bump, but are still looking good. But the comment rate hasn’t flattened as much. So the users that were retained seem to be more engaged than the users from the initial bump. I think this is a good thing for the health of lemmy. Likewise, the growth in supported apps, improvements to the software (Scaled sort in 0.19 is night-and-day better than anything prior!), and others will allow lemmy to not only survive, but be ready for whatever influx happens next.
I want to send a special shout out to all the admins, particularly on my home instance of lemmy.ca, and the coders who keep improving things. Thanks for giving us all a home!
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Thanks for this. Unlike on Reddit I feel much better posting here knowing I’m not helping some company make more money.
Gives me the old internet vibes I’ve come to crave
I wasn’t conscious of it until I had stopped, but on Reddit I was censoring myself to avoid my comments getting deleted.
Here there’s a different kind of self-censorship. Anything you do (including your upvotes) gets propagated out using the ActivityPub protocol to all instances that are subscribed to that community. So in theory, admins on different instances can tell what you’re upvoting. A bad acting admin could stalk you here in a way that a mod never could on reddit - because mods couldn’t look at your upvote history.
The good news is that they cannot delete or modify your content on other instances (only their own), so they’ll never pull a spez and edit someone else’s comment globally. And, bad acting admins will simply get defederated, so we should be self-policing (in theory).
Do we have an expectation of privacy for our upvotes, or is that generally supposed to be public information? I like to think my comments and upvotes match up pretty well.
I’m not sure how that expectation lines up. On reddit they were private (except to yourself and the admins). Because there’s no warning anywhere on lemmy that they are public (or at least semi-public), I’m going to presume that most reddit refugees believe it works like reddit.
Fair. I’ve heard kbin allows viewing, so there are federated sites which can see them without needing to be an admin or run an instance.
You were probably being racist. There’s only 2 things I can’t stand: intolerance and the Dutch.
I didn’t really look at all the little letters but I like how line go up
Would you like to invest in my cryptocurrency? Here’s a graph
shut up and take my money!
:o
I can’t wait for reddit’s next fuck up so we can get more folks over here!
They are closing in on an IPO so that could come anytime now
I feel like we have been saying that for 5+ years now.
Lemmy is big enough that we don’t need to wait for that. We can grow organically, but there are still some issues that need to get worked out. One issue is that lemmy is too anonymous and that leads to it not attracting content creators that don’t actually want to be anonymous and want to create a presence. I rarely see high effort OC on lemmy and I think that’s a big reason for it. People that create content that takes tens of hours to create aren’t going to bother with a platform with no kind of verification option where they can show that they’re actually the real creator and not a copycat account since you can have the same username on any instance. I think that could be fixed if there were a special instance for verified accounts only that content creators or notable individuals could use to post from.
Personally speaking, and I don’t think it’s too controversial of a view, but I kinda like that about lemmy.
I have come to hate “personal” focused social media and prefer “content” focused social media. I don’t care about random people or someone hoping to become an internet personality, I’m here for varied content and a selection of opinions in the comments. I don’t want those comments to be from the same people, and if they are, I’d prefer to be oblivious to that. I kinda like how lemmy goes further than Reddit in that it gets rid of cumulative karma counts too, hopefully means we avoid seeing a Lemmy equivalent of karmawhoring.
There was loads of high effort OC on Reddit, people typically weren’t doing it to create a presence (and if they were, they couldn’t have picked a harder platform to accomplish that, other than maybe 4chan)
Sweet post. To me this looks like the makings of a sustainable community and I remain pretty optimistic. Curious what the numbers for Kbin would look like.
My sympathies to anyone who has to use reddit because their niche community either doesn’t have enough activity or doesn’t exist at all.
I’m more of a casual user who’s just here for the news and memes, so fortunately I don’t have that problem.
I miss my niche communities, but I don’t have my app anymore soooo. Tough for me, tougher for spez.
Okay, more serious answer. You look like you’re on kbin, so I don’t know if this applies – nevertheless.
On Lemmy 0.19, the Scaled sort algorithm is such a good improvement over (Hot/All/Top/…) that existed prior to 0.19. It’s basically a Hot sort, but it’s weighted by community size. So if you’re subscribed to a small community, that gets one post a week, it’s still likely to end up in your feed. I’ve noticed a huge improvement when switching to it as my default sort – suddenly that weird music community I subbed to, but never noticed any of the posts – is in my feed. Etc.
Lemmy.world is still on 0.18, but when they upgrade (I have no information on that process) I suspect that people should be switching to it as their default sort for a better experience if they’re into niche topics.
In that case, I recommend [email protected] ;)
Subbed! Thanks!
Threw this analysis together because the-federation.info doesn’t provide derivatives:
⚠️ Note that the y-axes are not to the same scale! ⚠️
It looks to me that activity is diminishing slowly. There were peaks and dips (I assume by spammers?) but every server saw a huge spike when Reddit decided to kill third party apps, followed by a slow collapse afterwards. The ratio of Reddit-joiners to slow-leavers seems to be very similar.
Activity is huge compared to what it was before the Reddit event (especially in terms of comments) but it seems that Lemmy is not maintaining its popularity.
Even beehaw, which is a more opinionated, community focused server, seems to suffer from the same trend. Lemmynsfw seems to be keeping pace at the moment, though I do wonder if that’s because of repost bots.
⚠️ Note that the y-axes are not to the same scale! ⚠️
What about Lemmy’s competitor, kbin (and I suppose mbin)?
⚠️ Note that the y-axes are not to the same scale! ⚠️
I have my questions about the data (large amounts of posts disappearing is pretty weird) but if this data is correct, I don’t think the Threadiverse is viable for the long term without another influx of new users. These platforms are content-driven, and only a tiny amount of users post any interesting content compared to the upvoters and commenters, and the more interaction drops, the more people will want to leave.
I’m here because of the API stuff, I was a reddit sync user so when sync made their Lemmy app I joined.
Honestly Lemmy feels much more confusing than Reddit used to, I don’t fully understand the federation stuff and different worlds or whatever, I imagine there’s a lot of people confused about it like me.
I’m happy to stay and contribute but I think I need to figure out how to use this on my desktop because I only check Lemmy because of the sync android app.
Any tips on how to get started migrating my experience to desktop? Like I literally don’t know what URL I would go to.
The url for you would simply be lemmy.world. Just login with your account from the app and start scrolling, no need to migrate anything.
Federation in principle is actually really simple. Basically there are multiple servers (aka instances) run by different people and with their own urls, and they just send each other messages to stay in sync. E g. if you post something on LW, that server also sends it to all the others (all it is federated with), so they can show it to their users too. If someone upvotes the post then their server sends that info to all the other servers as well, so everyone can update their vote counter for that post. That’s it, that’s the magic.
The result is that all instances have the same content, and users can message each other no matter what instance they are on. That also means it doesn’t really matter which one you sign up on, and no content is lost if one of them goes down.
Thanks for sharing this, this is really interesting.
My hope is that when Reddit announces their IPO, more people will start talking about wishing for alternatives. I hope this motivates a few people who checked it out and left and lots of new people to take a first look, and when they do I hope they find an already active community that produces enough content to retain more people and generate more content.
When the reddit API protests occurred, lemmy wasn’t really ready for the influx either. Historically, when a social network dies, it’s some combination of a protest and there being a pre-existing landing place that is ready to receive the influx. In the case of digg dying, that was reddit ready and waiting.
But lemmy had so many rough edges and was almost entirely unknown at the time of the reddit protest – bugs, missing features, no apps… For most reddit users, even with the 3rd party shutdown, moving to lemmy at the time was objectively worse.
You’re right though – the next time something happens, lemmy is now established, the apps exist, many of the bugs and missing features have been dealt with, etc.
Totally remember the lack of apps. Initially, I just had to use Lemmy through a mobile browser. Lots of devs were working hard to publish their apps, and after a few months we had lots of options. That was just amazing how quickly it happened.
BTW shout out to Bean, my favorite Lemmy client. It’s not perfect, so in some cases I still use Voyager to fill in the gaps, so bonus points for Voyager too.
Another important detail is that Digg v4 pissed off most of the userbase, so the impact was pretty much immediate. Reddit APIcalypse pissed off only power users instead; the impact will only come off later (sadly likely past IPO).
Well, there was also the DeCSS key censorship debacle…
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
Could you explain what this was? I couldn’t find anything about it while searching.
Those results might be slightly skewed by alternate accounts. When I first joined after during the Reddit Exodus I created this account on lemmy.world, but the instance suffered a LOT of downtime for the first month or so, so I created a few other accounts on lemmy.ml and sh.itjust.works so I could still browse while lemmy.world was down.
After the instance stabilized I pretty much stopped using the account, so I personally am 2 of the people who “left” by leaving the other accounts inactive.Same, it might have been this
Same. I’ve made six accounts since I joined during the exodus, only two of which I actively use now.
Same. It wasn’t clear how to choose an instance, so I ended up creating accounts in three different places and posting a couple times before settling on this account. I haven’t used the other accounts in months, so they’re part of that surge.
API bullshit refugee here. Y’all are stuck with me.
Sorry.
Yeah I like yall here
I guess we’ll make do.
/s hello fellow refugee!
Meanwhile if you’re curious how reddit has been doing, just look at this chart
Awesome work! Thanks for sharing!
That’s nice. Reddit just needs to fuck up once again and we’ll maybe double again in users, then lose half of those that joined and be at 50% from now.
Once Forgejo and Gitlab have ActivityPub, more services like Wordpress and Flipboard activate it, and kbin/mbin/lemmy/mastodon becomes able to interact with them, then we might see some organic growth. If we get to a point where people don’t even know they’re part of the fediverse yet interact with it naturally, then maybe we’ll see explosive growth. All in time though. There’s no rush.
didnt read no bump 👆🤣🇺🇸🌀🦈🔨🤮
Lemmy has better user retention than Diablo IV confirmed
and the diablo 4 community is dead lmao
There are dozens of us! DOZENS!
Excellent work. Thank you!
I don’t even use lemmy and that was interesting to read.
